Another Bear Rally?
The bear market rally started on Thursday when CPI posted below expectation at the still-high 7.7% level but it was a little bit below mainstream estimates. This was enough to spark a rally of epic proportions, just like the one we saw in early summer. That rally that started in late June lasted until mid-August…
Inflation is Coming Down, Right?
Inflation is starting to come down but remains way above what the Federal Reserve deems acceptable. That means monetary policy isn’t likely to change anytime soon, and rates will stay higher for longer, as Powell said last week. But…what ultimately mattered was not the big-picture policy stuff. What appeared to take precedence today was that…
The Fed is in Control
The FED is in control of the markets right now and they continue to indicate more rate increases are coming. It’s interesting to read that many growth-oriented investors are taking shelter in one-year T-Bills paying 4.9 percent. Inflation is sticky and the Fed will have to remain on its current course of raising interest rates…
Another Rug Pull?
Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft missed their estimates and/or gave very weak guidance. They sold off and the main indexes didn’t even blink. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 still finished last week deep in the green. People wanted a “market of stocks” environment. This is what we are having right now. While some…
SALAD DAYS
Chop. Chop. Chop. Strong Close. Chop. Chop. Chop. Now it might be related to monthly options expirations. It might be connected to the Bank of Japan intervening to boost the Yen which led to a decline in the US Dollar. For the better part of this year, stocks have negatively correlated to the US Dollar.…
KOPS Watch 10.17.22
Enterprise Software, Apparel Retailers, Networking, Semiconductors
Not for the Faint of Heart
Last week was a crazy week! With 182 companies reporting earnings this week will not be for the faint of heart. The momentum remains negative and the earnings season is getting into full gear.The indexes remain well below their 200-day moving averages and the US dollar keeps rising with rates. The rising US dollar is…
A Silver Lining Playbook?
We are in the sentiment cycle where good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market. September jobs number came a bit above estimates and the market sold off on Friday erasing most of its gains for the week. The Fed won’t pivot until it sees a significant uptick in unemployment or…
KOPS Watch October 10
For the KOPS Watch from the weekend scans: Group Themes: Networking, Lithium Battery, Semiconductors, Commercial Vehicles Energy groups led the relative strength this week as Crude Oil had a strong rebound back towards the prior range lows, which helped the energy groups to form spring-type patterns and rally strongly, with 13% to 17% moves in the leading oil…
A Trick or Treat Rally?
Today’s rally looked different than what we’re used to seeing when we get big oversold bounces. Normally we see the stocks that have been hit the hardest on sell-offs bounce the most on big up days, but today, the gains were distributed pretty evenly across the board as we will see. But we are now…
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